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Africa supplies over 50% of global macadamia kernel. South Africa leads on volume. Kenya leads on EU import share. Here is what buyers and traders need to know about the African macadamia market in 2025 and beyond.
The African macadamia industry has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past decade. Once dominated almost entirely by Australia and South Africa for premium kernel production, the market now sees Africa supplying more than 50 percent of global macadamia kernel consumed in European and North American markets, with Kenya emerging as the leading supplier to the Netherlands — Europe's primary macadamia distribution hub.
At the same time, global macadamia demand has rebounded strongly from the pandemic-era price collapse. The industry projected market size of USD 1.79 billion in 2025 with a 9.2 percent CAGR through 2030. China — now the world's largest single macadamia consumer — is absorbing growing volumes of in-shell nuts and driving Asian demand. Meanwhile EU and US buyers are competing for certified premium kernel from South Africa and Kenya's best processors.
Macadamia kernel prices from Africa recovered strongly from the 2021–2023 price suppression period. CBI Netherlands data shows the average FOB price from Kenya, South Africa and Australia in the first half of 2025 ranged from €6.6 to €12.8 per kg, with most transactions concentrated in the €8.5–11.5 per kg band depending on origin and style grade.
| Origin | Style 0 (Whole Polished) | Style 1 (Whole Natural) | Style 2 (Halves) | Style 4 (Pieces) | Position vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | €10.00–€12.80/kg FOB | €8.50–€10.50/kg FOB | €7.00–€9.00/kg FOB | €4.00–€6.00/kg FOB | Premium pricing; strongest BRC certification base |
| Kenya (top processors) | €9.00–€11.50/kg FOB | €7.50–€9.50/kg FOB | €6.00–€8.00/kg FOB | €3.50–€5.50/kg FOB | Competitive — varies significantly by processor quality |
| Kenya (smaller processors) | €7.00–€9.50/kg FOB | €6.00–€8.00/kg FOB | €5.00–€7.00/kg FOB | €3.00–€4.50/kg FOB | Discount vs SA; quality more variable |
| Malawi | €6.60–€9.00/kg FOB | €5.50–€7.50/kg FOB | €4.50–€6.50/kg FOB | €3.00–€4.50/kg FOB | Primarily Asia-market positioned; lower EU recognition |
Understanding the split between in-shell (NIS) and kernel trade is essential for any buyer or trader engaging with African macadamia. These are effectively two different commodity markets with different buyers, different logistics, and different price dynamics.
Macadamia in-shell (NIS) is the unprocessed nut inside its hard shell. NIS is exported before cracking, and the importing country's processors extract the kernel domestically. China and Vietnam dominate global NIS imports. South Africa exported 44,104 tonnes of NIS in 2024, and approximately 95 percent of this went to China. Chinese domestic macadamia consumption surged to 29,500 MT kernel-equivalent in 2023 — a 70 percent year-on-year increase — and China is now the world's largest macadamia consumer. Kenya's high farm gate prices in 2024 — driven precisely by Chinese competition for NIS supply — disrupted local processors and prompted the government harvesting ban to protect local kernel processing industries.
Macadamia kernel is the shelled, graded nut ready for consumption or food manufacturing use. EU and Western markets — Germany, Netherlands, USA, UK, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan — predominantly import kernel. Kernel commands a significantly higher price per kg than NIS (typically 3–4 times the NIS price) because it represents processed, sorted, and tested product with known style grade and food safety compliance. African exporters selling to EU and North American markets should focus their operations on kernel production and processing, not NIS, to capture maximum value per kilogram of production.
Macadamia nuts have successfully moved from niche to mainstream in European and North American markets. Positioned around their exceptionally high monounsaturated fat content, cardiovascular health benefits, and clean-label credential, macadamias are now appearing as premium inclusions in granola, chocolate, cookie, and plant-based food formulations. Germany's demand for organic macadamia has been growing consistently, and Dutch wholesalers report increasing annual volumes driven by consumer health awareness.
Macadamia milk has emerged as a premium plant-based dairy alternative, and macadamia oil is gaining ground in cosmetics and pharmaceutical formulations. These industrial applications create more stable year-round demand compared to the seasonally volatile retail snacking segment. EU manufacturers establishing long-term supply contracts with African processors for macadamia oil and food manufacturing kernel are creating more predictable demand signals for the market.
China surpassed North America as the world's largest macadamia consumer in 2022. The World Macadamia Organisation projects China's demand will reach 46,500 MT kernel-equivalent by 2027 — approximately 2.7 times the 2022 level. This extraordinary growth in the world's most populous market is creating sustained competitive pressure for African macadamia supply, pushing farm gate prices higher and creating tension between NIS export revenue (which benefits Chinese processors) and domestic kernel processing revenue (which benefits African processors and exporters targeting EU and US markets).
| Country | Main Harvest Period | Peak Export Window | Primary Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | March–July (harvest); processing through September | May–October kernel; September–December NIS | USA kernel; China NIS; Germany/Netherlands kernel |
| Kenya | April–August (post-March ban lifted) | June–October kernel export | Netherlands, UK (kernel); China (NIS and kernel) |
| Malawi | April–August | June–October | China primarily; some EU via Netherlands |
| Zimbabwe | April–July | May–September | EU specialty; some China |
| Australia (reference) | March–August | May–November | USA, Europe, Asia — year-round supply |
South Africa's macadamia exports to the US have historically benefited from duty-free access under AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act). Uncertainty around AGOA's continuation under the current US administration creates tariff risk for South African macadamia exporters targeting the US market. ProAgri Media estimates a potential 5 US cents per kg additional duty if AGOA access is suspended — described as a "manageable blow" but one that could modestly shift South African kernel volumes toward EU and Asian markets, affecting competitive pricing in those channels.
Kenya's AFA Nuts and Oil Crops Directorate introduced seasonal harvesting bans (November 2024 to March 2025) to prevent premature harvest that had damaged Kenya's quality reputation. While positive for long-term quality, such bans temporarily reduce African kernel supply and create short-term price spikes. Buyers who source exclusively from Kenya should account for this seasonal regulatory risk in their supply planning and maintain alternative sourcing relationships with South African or Malawian processors.
China's Yunnan Province has its own domestic macadamia production, though at much smaller scale than African and Australian origins. Growing Chinese domestic production and increasing domestic cracking of imported NIS is changing the Chinese market's demand composition — reducing the premium paid for African kernel in that market but potentially stabilising it by improving price discovery between origins.
ExportReady.africa covers African market intelligence across fresh produce, nuts, and specialty commodities. Find verified African macadamia exporters and processors in our supplier directory.